The chicken or the fish?

It's that time of year when analysts release their year-ahead forecasts, often at large set-piece client events. Analysts appear cautious, overly US-centric, under-appreciating developments in China.

• We don’t take analyst forecasts too seriously. Our focus is more on the rationale for their views, providing an insight into perceived key issues and market psychology.

• There exists a significant dichotomy between institutional and retail market participants. Institutional investors as polled by Reuters are cautious about the outlook, especially in the …